[johnf]

Are pot odds enough?

I am willing to play a modified game of NL Texas Hold’em with you. We will play 1000 hands starting each hand after the flop. Here are the rules:


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We each post $1000.
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We are each given 1000 in chips.
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For each hand I will hold AdKh and you will hold 6c7c. We will obviously know what each other has since I just told you.
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The flop will always be Kc, 9c, and 2d.
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We will shuffle the remainder of the deck prior to dealing the turn and the river.
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We will start each hand with 10 chips in the pot. The 10 chips will come from the house, not our stacks.
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I am first to act.
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On the Flop, I can only bet a maximum of 5 chips.
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On the Turn, I can only bet a maximum of 5 chips.
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We can both fold at any time.
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At the end of 1000 hands, if you have less than 1000 chips, I win and get you $1000.
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At the end of 1000 hands, if you have more than 1000 chips, you win and get my $1000.


Do you want some of my action?

Here are some numbers…


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On the flop, with a 10 chip pot and a 5 chip bet by me, the pot will be paying you 3-1 to call. You have 9 outs with two cards to go. You have a 35% chance of getting your flush with two cards to go. You call right?
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On the turn, the pot will be 20 chips. I can only bet 5 chips so the pot will be paying you 5-1. You have 9 outs with one card to go or a 19.5% chance of getting your flush. You call right?


Given the above, you can’t lose. You have to finish with more money then you started with. Pot odds say so. Come on, play me!

Is there a flaw in my logic?

[Chi_Town]

The flaw is that you are 4:1 on just the turn, and 4:1 on the just river... the 3:1 pot odds on the turn make it incorrect to take this action.

However, the real way to look at this is... it costs you 10 chips to win 20 after two cards (5 chip call on the turn, 5 chip call on the river - you put in 10 to win the original 10 plus the 10 from your opponent). That is 2:1 pot odds.

With two cards to come, you are 2:1 to hit your flush (staying in to see both cards).

So... it is a net sum 0 proposition... or in game theory, it is called a waste of time.

[Chi_Town]

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