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chris



Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 20
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:02 am    Post subject: Probability of winning? Reply with quote

Need your calculator here.
Does anybody know the percentage of flopping a set if you have a pocket pair?
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chris



Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 20
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The question was flopping a set. Each card bears (roughly) a 4% chance of making your set, and since you get three cards on the flop, you've got about a 12% chance of making your set on the flop.

So getting three cards doesn't improve your odds, but you do get three shots by being in the pot on the flop. What am I not getting here?
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jorpot



Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 12
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seeing 3 cards on the flop as opposed to seeing one on the turn or river certainly does increase your odds. The third card can come on any card, hence why you add the probabilities of roughly 4% on each card. So, if you went all-in and saw a higher pocket pair, for all 5 cards you have a 20% chance of hitting trips. Hence you are a 4-1 (80%) underdog.
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DeepBlue



Joined: 19 Dec 2005
Posts: 93
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's what I figured jorpot, so I'm assuming my maths aren't too far off the mark.
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