Illinois Casinos & Gambling Forum - Poker, Pari-mutuel

johnf · Joined: 31 Dec 2005 Posts: 22

I am in a NL tourny with 7 ppl left. I have about average chips, the blinds were just raised. I am on the BB with 66, and the player in first position raises 3-4x the BB. I know this player to be extremely tight, so as one person calls I fold my BB. The flop came 6-4-2, the the dealer who is a friend had looked at my cards and said "OMG YOU FOLDED THIS?!?!". The tight player had bet out the caller, and he showed his KK. So I was like "Yeah, I knew he had a monster and made the right play" Then we got into a big argument about folding any pockets preflop to a raise, how I was not getting correct pot odds (which he didnt understand) He said I should always play pockets with a raise just to outdraw them. Is it correct to fold this or do implied odds have something to do with it?

Thanks a lot, still trying to learn this game

lork · Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 27

There are a couple of ways to approach this. The conservative by the book way, or the gamblers anonymous way.

Option #1. Fold. At best you are a 57-43 favorite to 2 unsuited overs. At worst you are a 4:1 dog. However, if you don't hit your set on the flop, it would be tough to bet/call a flop of 1-2 overcards, so I would say that you are actually a 7:1 dog. (isn't it 7:1 against hitting set on flop? Brain block. I dunno, not good odds of hitting it.) And even if you do hit your set, he may have had AK with nothing but Ace high, and you don't get paid off big enough to justify the risk. Or even worse, although unlikely, he could have a higher PP that hit, and that is a very good way to lose all your money.

Option #2. Call. If you understand that you will probably have to fold after the flop, you can throw easily. However, if you do hit your set, you can take everything he has if you put him on a high PP or AK/AQ/AJ and an ace hits. Imagine what you would do if you have AA/KK and the flop is 962, you might bet it hard and might commit yourself to go all-in. If you think that if can you call and hit the flop, then get him all in somewhere along the line, you can take home a large pot most likely.

I would lean towards folding because you are either 50-50, with an unplayable post-flop hand, or dominated, but if you are in the mood of go for it all or go home, call, the pot should be huge if you win.

pritz · Joined: 17 Jan 2006 Posts: 14

it was a very good fold,you made a good read on a tight player and it was definetly the right fold. i mean you can use it to your advantage a little bit but you are a 4 to 1 under dog if your read is right and calling a under the gun big bet then you are just making a stupid play. if you make that play you are a true online poker player. knowing your beat and still making a bad call.

razor · Joined: 21 Dec 2005 Posts: 15

You didn't give any information about stack/blind sizes, but overall I'd say this was a good fold regardless of this specific outcome.

In a tournament setting, a chip saved is worth more than a chip earned. In a cash game, I'd probably make this call. In a tournament, easy fold to a UTG raise if I know UTG is tight and understands the value of position.

Also, I would not be pleased with anyone looking at my mucked cards regardless of how friendly the game was. There's money on the line here. I wouldn't make a big deal out of it at the time, but I would say something in private after the game. Dealers have no right to look at anyone's cards.

ballen · Joined: 31 Dec 2005 Posts: 25

Good fold. The dealer shouldn't be looking at your cards after you muck, no one but you is supposed to know what you were holding.

DeepBlue · Joined: 19 Dec 2005 Posts: 93

Definitely, although you could hav ehad a nice hand after the flop, a tight player making raises that early on is a sure fire indication of a big hand or a bluff. Either way, I would have advised putting those cards down without any regrets having seen the flop.

Chi_Town · Joined: 23 Jun 2006 Posts: 20 Location: Joliet, IL

Folding was right - he was a known tight player raising in early position (screaming strength) and you were out of position.

The only play you had would be to call, and bet out if the board is rags. If he had AK, he would likely fold and you get the pot. If he has the big pair, you will hear about it and will have to get away... but your reverse implies odds are not good here. You stand to win a pot with only the players original raise, while you stand to loose your call and the bet on the flop (you are risking more to get less).